Gridiron Challenge: Week 17 preview

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
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Each week, Tristan H. Cockcroft offers his strategies for the Gridiron Challenge game. Look for his best and worst matchups every Thursday.

Matchups I Like

Derek Anderson, QB, Browns (SF, 6.9 price tag): If the Browns wind up missing the postseason, he's going to have a lot to answer for, after registering back-to-back stinkers in Weeks 15 and 16 to cause his team to lose control of its playoff destiny. A Week 17 matchup, against a 49ers team that has allowed 279.0 passing yards per game the past five weeks, should provide the perfect opportunity for him to make the statement, "Hey, I'm still an elite fantasy quarterback." There's all the motivation in the world here for a huge day.

Bernard Berrian, WR, Bears (NO, 3.9): Saints cornerback Jason David has spent the season making stars out of virtually every receiver he defends, and Berrian is the kind of deep threat with the skills to break free for a couple of notable catches in Week 17. He and the Bears know they have nothing to play for but pride; they can knock the Saints out of contention with a strong effort. I'd look for a good yardage day and a score.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos (MIN, 5.1): He has more targets (51), more receptions (33) and more red zone targets (9) than any other wide receiver the past four weeks, and those of you who have been paying attention know the Vikings allow more passing yards than anyone (266.1 per game). There's a chance he'll be good for another 10-catch, 100-yard day, like he's had in two of the past three weeks.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Vikings (@DEN, 5.9): Opponents have begun stacking the box against Minnesota, focusing solely on shutting down Peterson, the most reliable part of the team's offensive attack for much of the season. The problem this week, though, is that the Broncos lack the defensive personnel to employ that strategy without leaving themselves open to huge plays in the passing department. Denver's run defense ranks 30th (140.7 ypg) and might not improve even with an extra man in the box; I expect a big bounce-back game.

Kolby Smith, RB, Chiefs (@NYJ, 4.3): Since that Week 11 outburst against the Raiders, Smith hasn't impressed from a fantasy perspective, averaging 59.3 rushing yards per game and 3.4 yards per carry the past four weeks. Still, he did offer his owners a respectable 115 total yards in Week 16, and his matchup this week is comparably favorable, battling a Jets defense ranked 29th against the run (140.2 ypg).

Aaron Stecker, RB, Saints (@CHI, 4.0): I know a lot of people are worried about the Reggie Bush factor, and to a point, Bush's presence does detract from Stecker's appeal. Still, I can't count on Bush getting more than a third of the touches among New Orleans running backs -- at best -- not with him having missed so much time. That means Stecker should get a healthy workload, and he'd be facing a Bears defense that has allowed 121.0 rushing yards per game and eight rushing scores in the past five weeks.

Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals (STL, 7.3): He's one of the few trustworthy quarterbacks in Week 17, coming off a streak of seven consecutive multitouchdown performances while averaging 293.4 passing yards during that span. No, his Cardinals have nothing to play for, but he has the motivation of facing his old team, one with a subpar pass defense; the Rams rank 19th in the league in that department (220.9 ypg).

Sleepers

Nate Burleson, WR, Seahawks (@ATL, 4.1 price tag): The Seahawks can't rest all of their receivers in Week 17, so the most obvious choices to sit most (or all) of the game are Deion Branch and D.J. Hackett, each of whom has battled his share of injuries this season. Burleson, lower on the depth chart but nonetheless a respectable contributor of late, should be ready to capitalize on a full game's workload against the Falcons, who have allowed a league-worst 13 passing touchdowns the past five weeks.

Kenton Keith, RB, Colts (TEN, 3.5): You'll see below that I'm among the believers that Joseph Addai will sit most, if not all, of Week 17. I'm thinking Addai gets one series and then heads to the sidelines. Keith, meanwhile, has done an adequate job -- to say the least -- when called upon to play, averaging 4.4 yards per carry for the year and 91.2 total yards in the five games in which he has had 10-plus touches. He's quite the sleeper.

Darren Sproles, RB, Chargers (@OAK, 4.5): While I'm thinking LaDainian Tomlinson sees more game action in Week 17 than Joseph Addai, the Chargers' matchup is by far the more favorable of the two for fantasy. Oakland's defense has allowed an unsightly 24 rushing touchdowns, worst in the league, meaning Tomlinson and Sproles could offer you top-10 running back numbers in the same game.

Matchups I'd Avoid

Marion Barber, RB, Cowboys (@WAS, 5.8 price tag): Those 22 carries and 25 touches he amassed in Week 16 both represented season highs and put him clearly in the category of "rest candidates" for the regular-season finale. Besides, the Redskins' strength is in their front seven; they rank eighth against the run (97.3 ypg), and held Barber to a paltry 50 total yards and no touchdowns in their last meeting in Week 11.

Plaxico Burress, WR, Giants (NE, 4.9): I think the Giants were probably thrilled to lock themselves in as the NFC's No. 5 playoff seed in Week 16. They badly need to get some of their key performers healthy for the postseason. Burress, with his balky ankle and hamstring, tops the list. Throw in the fact that the Patriots could manhandle this team, and that the weather might be an issue again, and we might not see him at all this week.

David Garrard, QB, Jaguars (@HOU, 6.8): This one has nothing to do with my respect for the Texans' defense. Far from it; I think the matchup on paper is fantastic, actually. No, this one is about the Jaguars being locked in as the AFC's No. 5 playoff seed and having to play Week 17 and the first week of the playoffs, back-to-back games, on the road. It'd be silly for them to push Garrard, who could stand a rest right now.

Roddy White, WR, Falcons (SEA, 4.8): While it was nice to see him bounce back with a 12-catch, 141-yard effort in Week 16, the matchup was awfully favorable for a receiver like him. Now, White and the woeful Falcons battle the Seahawks, who, while locked in as the NFC's No. 3 seed, nevertheless have the talent on defense to completely stymie an opponent's passing game. They have 11 interceptions the past five weeks.

The "Big Guns" to Avoid

They rank among the 10 most expensive at their respective positions, and the matchup dictates you'd be better off spending the money elsewhere.

Joseph Addai, RB, Colts (TEN, 7.0 price tag): Besides the Colts' multitude of banged-up receivers, there's perhaps no one on the roster who could stand a rest more than Addai. He's seventh in the league in touches (290), and that's despite his getting a season-low seven in Week 16 and his having missed another game with a bruised shoulder. The Colts are locked in as the AFC's No. 2 seed. I bet he barely plays.

Brandon Jacobs, RB, Giants (NE, 6.2): There is no shortage of reasons not to use him. One, his ankle began acting up during Week 16, costing him the entire fourth quarter. Two, his Giants are now locked in as the NFC's No. 5 playoff seed, and therefore have no motivation to push a less-than-healthy running back. Three, the matchup is terrible; the Patriots regularly run up the score and take opposing runners out of the game. Four, the Giants could use this game to evaluate Ahmad Bradshaw's role, now something entirely relevant, heading into the playoffs. Need I say more?

Peyton Manning, QB, Colts (TEN, 8.0): This one is all about the history books. In 2004 and '05, each a year in which the Colts had already wrapped up playoff positioning before Week 17, Manning totaled four pass attempts in those Week 17 contests. This year, the Colts are already locked in as the AFC's No. 2 seed. Expect plenty of Jim Sorgi again.

Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys (@WAS, 7.9): Sense a theme here? The Cowboys have already clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, and Romo's bruised thumb has made him look awfully ordinary the past two weeks. Despite Wade Phillips' comments that he plans to play for a 14th win in Week 17, I'm skeptical he means to do it by riding a nicked-up Romo for a full game. Expect to see a heavy dose of Brad Johnson this week.

Have No Fear

Their matchups might not look good, but you shouldn't be worried.

Tom Brady, QB, Patriots (@NYG, 7.9 price tag): Two words: perfect record. It's in the Patriots' sights, so throw out all that talk about the team resting starters, or barely playing Brady at all. There are records galore to be had. Besides a 16-0 record for the team, Brady needs two touchdown passes to break Peyton Manning's 3-year-old mark. I think he'll get it, and only sit if he single-handedly has led his team to a massive first-half lead.

Randy Moss, WR, Patriots (@NYG, 7.2): Like Brady, Moss has a record of his own he's chasing to serve as motivation. He's one touchdown away from Jerry Rice's single-season mark. Considering he has found the end zone in all but three of his 15 contests this season, I'd say he's a fairly strong bet to at least match Rice in Week 17.

Tristan's Gridiron Challenge Lineup: Week 17

QB1: Kurt Warner, Cardinals (STL, 7.3 price tag)
QB2: Derek Anderson, Browns (SF, 6.9)
RB1: Steven Jackson, Rams (@ARI, 6.8)
RB2: Jamal Lewis, Browns (SF, 6.2)
WR1: Brandon Marshall, Broncos (MIN, 5.1)
WR2: Hines Ward, Steelers (@BAL, 4.7)
TE: Tony Gonzalez, Chiefs (@NYJ, 4.7)
K: Adam Vinatieri, Colts (TEN, 4.0)
D/ST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (CAR, 5.0)

Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



 
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